The censorship and propaganda of opinion polls
Having quite blatantly censored yesterday’s Barker Poll showing an 8-point lead for the Scottish Yes campaign, this morning the
Maily Twinnograph Daily Telegraph trumpets a new one from its front page. This new Survation poll shows the No campaign “back in front” with a 6-point lead, suggesting that the Yessers “have peaked too early”. It was “Black Wednesday” for Slippery Salmond said the Sarkograph.
Utterly fantastic nonsense, all of it. Three days ago, I posted about opinion polls being used as propaganda. This is a classic example. Here’s the real story.
The Barker Poll published late Tuesday, and used what we call ‘forced choice’ – ‘don’t know’ was not on offer as an alternative. So what we see in this result is a “when push comes to shove” snapshot of, arguably, how people will probably vote in the end. It showed an 8%…
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Yesterday, The Slog opined as follows in relation to the UK Chancellor’s challenges:
‘I suspect a Scottish Yes vote is what Little Squeaky [Osborne] fears most. While Scotland ‘got’ £16.5bn more in UK public spending than it contributed to total UK revenues in 2009-10, this is no longer true, and the Chancellor knows it: Scotland now pays more in tax per head than the rest of the UK. Out of just under £560 billion of public spending in 2012-13, England accounts for £456bn – with just £54bn spent on the Scots….a shrinkage in the Sterling Area may well play very badly for the Pound….a cheap Pound gives you a head start in exports….briefly. Then, when the time comes to buy the next round of raw materials and food, it bites you in the backside. Also a steep fall in the currency could set off a panic.’
Well, since then…
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In a dramatic (and slightly gruesome) turn of events, former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher has risen from the dead to wade into the battle to save the Union.
As polls show the pro-independence campaign taking the lead for the first time, Tory chiefs have made the momentous decision to deploy their ultimate weapon: the Thatchernator.
Using the dark arts of necromancy and voodoo, which many of the upper House are experienced practitioners of, Better Together leaders claim they had ‘no choice’ but to reanimate their dead leader.
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In Glasgow there have been allegations of electoral fraud, Sky News reports. There were claims that, in 10 cases, people tried to represent someone who had already voted. The police have been called in and some ballot papers are being removed from ballot boxes so they can be investigated. [Let the gerrymandering begin.]
by craig on September 8, 2014
YouGov stood to have its reputation shattered if it continued to put out polls showing ten point leads for No, when Yes is very obviously headed for a majority.
Those massive YouGov leads for No were all part of the Unionist tactic of making independence appear both uniquely impossible to Scotland, as opposed to any other small nation state you can name, and an unattainable dream. Too poor, too wee, too stupid and politically isolated. YouGov are known in the trade as “You Can Have Any Result You Pay For Gov”. For months, James Kelly on the Scot Goes Pop blog has brilliantly analysed the methodologies they employed to give those large No leads – asking prior leading questions, a large preponderance of Labour voters in their panel, and the “Kellner Correction” – an assumption that lies or faulty memory about how people last voted, would penalise Labour unless corrected for statistically. The result was YouGov polls that were great reading for the No camp, but made no sense whatsever to anybody who had talked to voters.
My own view is that there has not been an extraordinary 12 point swing in a fortnight, as illustrated by YouGov’s last two polls. What there has been is a continuing stead swing and a realisation in YouGov that, having helped the No campaign for over a year by trying to make a Yes vote seem hopeless, to be over 12% out on this vital vote might damage YouGov’s share price fatally. So they have had to start publishing something close to the truth.
As I have been reporting, the truth has been very obvious to people on the ground for weeks. And the truth is not only that independence is coming, but that the entire political class, BBC and mainstream media has been rejected, and a new form of popular power, based on community democracy and social media, has taken over.
I received an invite from the National Library of Scotland to a post-referendum debrief at 9am on 19 September. Anybody sober at 9am on 19 September (unless having medical excuse) is not part of the New Scotland. But more crucially, the panel includes Henry McLeish and Michael Moore – and they want people to pay 35 pounds to listen to their words of wisdom.
They really haven’t got it yet. Nobody will ever care what Moore and McLeish and their like have to say again, and the kind of democracy we will have will not involve paying substantial sums to hear pearls of wisdom drop from troughers on a pedestal. Nor will members of the old political establishment have a future in that career. It was a good tactic for Alex Salmond to say that Darling and Carmichael will be on the negotiating team: the people will not allow it to happen.
There is at last some understanding that Yes will win: the penny has not yet dropped that this is a revolutionary moment, not a polite constitutional shuffle.
by craig on September 4, 2014
The Guardian’s Michael White is a revolting liar. He writes today in The Guardian:
Why so few “no thanks” posters or union flags? “Because we don’t want our windows smashed or tyres slashed,” some no voters reply.
That is a plain lie, Michael White. No “No voters” said that to you. You made it up. Nor has there been a single instance reported of any No voter having their windows or car trashed.
White also retails a story that a woman allegedly told him on hearsay about somebody else who was “seized by the throat” on canvassing because of their English accent. Well I have lived more than eight years of my adult life in Scotland and never once had any adverse reaction of any kind to my very English accent, including while canvassing in some very deprived areas. This incident is also an invention.
White has always been revolting, his constant snide support for Tony Blair and his wars, covered by that horrible false bonhommie, is repulsive. But the move into straightforward lies disguised as reportage to please his New Labour masters (and their creature Rusbridger) cannot be allowed to pass. Michael White is a disgrace to the profession of journalism.
Having saved the World in 2008, Gordon Brown is stepping in to save the UK in 2014. He is embarking, with full Government support, on a 30-stop tub thumping tour of Scotland to try and persuade his countrymen that they’re better off staying with the Cameron Highlanders. It’s a shrewd move by Number Ten: people will think, “if it wasn’t for the Union, we’d have this clown in our politics”. There should be a clear majority for the ‘No’ campaign come next Friday.
While encouraging their near neighbours to stay under the post-Glencoe Massacre yoke, the English themselves meanwhile are increasingly keen to break away from the European Union. With the Germans running economic strategy and the Italians in charge of the money, there are plenty of grounds for secession enthusiasm. But Camerlot continues to insist that we are better staying in so we can…
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“British air strikes on Syria would be legally justified”, British Prime Minister David Cameron
Can I just remind Cameron of the basis of the U.N. Charter, Article 2 , paragraph 4, “ “All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.”
I see no mention about Mr Cameron’s personal opinions. Therefore even his threat of military strikes is contravention of International Law before he starts.
One wonders how British Prime Minister David Cameron would try to justify his patently criminal statements in front of a war crimes tribunal…
[click on images to enlarge]
[Editorial note: An accurate list of the “10-nation coalition” is quoted below.]
excerpt from: Shoulder to shoulder: as Nato sets…
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Scotland Stands Up
by Josep C. Verges
Catalonia stands up united for a new country: V for vote by millions of Catalans demanding democracy cover the Diagonal and the Gran Via of the Catalan Parliament in Barcelona on 9/11 2014. Below: Scotland stands up: The mother of parliaments in London has a Catalan grandmother. The restored Parliament in Edinburgh has a Catalan architect.
Democrat Cameron has ended up doing exactly the same as denialist Rajoy by boycotting the Scottish referendum. He didn’t ban the vote knowing full well, unlike Spanish nationalists, that democracy is the power of the people, not of the State. But Cameron left the no campaign in the hands of the Labour losers and refused to debate with Alex Salmond, the Scottish first minister. The suffocating control of English media is just like Madrid. London also controls the press and television, which have not budged from no…
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